Setor automotivo tem piora de risco de crédito

Por Valor Econômico

O setor automotivo mundial será fortemente afetado neste ano pela desaceleração da economia e as incertezas políticas, com as ameaças de guerra comercial e protecionismo. Após ciclo de oito anos em crescimento de vendas, as montadoras das principais economias e da América Latina apresentarão arrefecimento.

Com base nesse cenário, a seguradora francesa Coface rebaixou a nota de risco de crédito do setor para 2019. As montadoras ainda estão pressionadas pela competição com novos concorrentes no mercado, como as empresas de tecnologia, o que tem exigido altos investimentos em inovação para desenvolver carros elétricos ou autônomos. Além disso, os consumidores têm mudado os hábitos de consumo, preferindo compartilhar automóveis ou comprar os modelos menores, em vez dos sedãs.

“Quem dirá o que será o carro padrão daqui a alguns anos? As inovações vão mudar o setor automotivo, bem como os novos hábitos de mobilidade da população”, disse Xavier Durand, presidente da Coface, em congresso realizado em Paris no início do mês para a divulgação do relatório de riscos globais da empresa.

O risco político ameaça as montadoras, com a guerra comercial entre os países e o maior protecionismo A cada trimestre, a Coface revê a classificação de risco de crédito de 13 setores, em 27 países, que correspondem a 87% do produto interno bruto global. Entre os itens analisados, estão as estimativas de falência de empresas, a capacidade de pagamento de crédito corporativo e o resultado financeiro das empresas. O risco de crédito está dividido em baixo, médio, alto e muito alto. De acordo com a seguradora, na América do Norte, o risco de crédito das montadoras passou de “médio” para “alto” entre o último trimestre de 2018 e os primeiros três meses de 2019, a mesma mudança que ocorreu na nota dos Estados Unidos.

A América Latina também foi de risco “médio” para “alto”. Enquanto o Brasil manteve a avaliação de risco em “médio”, a Argentina foi de “alto” para “muito alto”. Já o risco do setor automotivo europeu passou de “baixo” para “médio”, enquanto a Ásia manteve o risco “médio”. Por trás da avaliação pior do setor automotivo, está o fato das vendas de carros estarem em queda nas economias mais desenvolvidas e em alguns emergentes, devido ao arrefecimento da atividade. A Coface espera, neste ano, crescimento de 3% do produto interno bruto global, frente a 3,2% nos anos anteriores, o que a própria seguradora diz que pode parecer pouco, mas já é o suficiente para elevar o risco de crédito das empresas.

Nos Estados Unidos, no caso dos automóveis leves, houve redução de 1% das vendas de janeiro a novembro de 2018, frente ao mesmo período de 2017. Na China a queda foi de 2% na mesma base comparativa e 2018 será o primeiro ano, em duas décadas, a ter queda nas vendas de carros. Na Europa, apesar do aumento das venda na França e na Alemanha, há queda na Itália, Espanha e Reino Unido.

Na Argentina, em que as vendas caíram quase 46% em novembro de 2018, em comparação ao mesmo mês de 2017, as concessionárias disseram que têm estoque suficiente para durar seis meses. Fabricantes de automóveis já começaram a suspender contratos de trabalhadores. As vendas caíram impactadas pelo câmbio e o aumento da taxa de juros, que encareceu os empréstimos às famílias.

O risco político também ameaça o setor automotivo, com a guerra comercial entre os países e o maior protecionismo. O próprio Brexit, como se convencionou chamar a saída do Reino Unido da União Europeia, é um foco de preocupação. “Exportamos bastante pneus e, com o Brexit, teremos de pagar mais taxas, o que terá impacto em inflação e em empregos na nossa indústria”, afirmou Jean-Dominique Senard, presidente do conselho de administração da Michelin.

Em relação à guerra comercial, o presidente Donald Trump ameaçou impor tarifas mais altas a carros e peças importados da Europa, se os aliados do continente não fizerem concessões comerciais. Esse cenário impõe um obstáculo para montadoras estrangeiras em solo americano e penaliza as próprias americanas, uma vez que algumas peças mais aprimoradas e produtos de aço são feitos no exterior. As montadoras estão em alerta, mesmo porque, a depender do avanço da guerra comercial e do protecionismo, as cadeias globais podem ser afetadas.

“A China é um produtor muito forte de baterias sofisticadas, e não temos a capacidade de produção de baterias para todas as montadoras, com preço razoáveis, nos próximos anos. Temos um desafio tecnológico enorme”, disse Yves Bonnefont, presidente da DS Automobiles, do grupo PSA. Em adição a tudo isso, está a necessidade das montadoras em se adaptar a novos padrões de emissão de poluentes na China, Europa e Estados Unidos.

O mercado europeu está sofrendo com novas regras de teste, o que tem criado um vácuo na homologação de modelos. A repórter viajou à convite da Coface

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