Problemas dos Estados parecem longe do fim

Por Valor Econômico

Os governadores dos Estados brasileiros certamente devem ter comemorado que a mais recente prévia do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), calculada pelo Banco Central (BC), superou as expectativas. O IBC-Br de novembro ficou em 0,49% e reforçou as previsões de retomada. A recuperação da economia deve propiciar a melhoria da arrecadação de tributos e engordar as exauridas receitas dos Estados. No entanto, está longe de resolver seus problemas principais, concentrados no alto peso das despesas de pessoal e da Previdência.

Igualmente bem-vindo é o acordo de renegociação das dívidas dos Estados com a União e com o BNDES, cujo balanço acaba de ser divulgado pelo Tesouro. O acordo envolve a renegociação de nada menos que R$ 458,9 bilhões em dívida estadual por mais 20 anos e envolve dívidas junto ao BNDES. A União perde R$ 44,7 bilhões em fluxo de pagamento por conta do refinanciamento. Somente com o BNDES foram R$ 14,5 bilhões refinanciados. O acerto foi selado em junho de 2016 e tinha que ser assinado até o dia 23 de dezembro. Ele foi fechado depois que 19 Estados conseguiram, no primeiro semestre de 2016, liminares do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) permitindo o não pagamento das parcelas vencidas a partir de março daquele ano diante da discussão em torno da forma de capitalização dos juros incidentes sobre o saldo dos refinanciamentos acertados quase 20 anos antes, em 1997, pela Lei 9.496, que havia alongado o pagamento dos débitos por 30 anos.

O acordo foi assinado por 18 Estados e ainda envolveu a redução extraordinária das parcelas devidas entre julho de 2016 e junho deste ano. Como contrapartida ao refinanciamento das dívidas, os Estados aderiram ao Novo Programa de Apoio à Reestruturação e ao Ajuste Fiscal dos Estados (PAF), conforme Lei Complementar 156, que prevê transparência, convergência para a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF) e, ainda, a fixação de um teto para as despesas primárias correntes por dois anos.

Todos os 18 Estados publicaram lei se comprometendo a obedecer um teto para os gastos, após maior ou menor embate em suas assembleias estaduais. O limite será estabelecido sobre a despesa primária corrente, cuja base poderá calculada conforme um leque de alternativas permitido pelo Tesouro e terá a inflação, medida pelo IPCA, como teto para a variação. A expansão maior dessas despesas não pode ser compensada com crescimento menor nos demais gastos, como os investimentos. Mas o desafio maior, na verdade, se deve ao fato de que o IPCA de 2017, que vai fixar o teto das despesas deste ano, ficou baixo, em apenas em 2,95%, e muitas despesas crescem mais do que isso. Gastos relacionados à educação e saúde, por exemplo, estão vinculados às receitas, que devem crescer com a retomada da economia, e não à inflação.

Estudos técnicos do Confaz mencionados por um secretário estadual ao Valor (8/12) indicam que as receitas dos Estados crescerão de 5% a 8% nominais neste ano, o que pressionará as despesas vinculadas. Cálculos feitos pelo jornal com dados do primeiro semestre do ano passado mostraram que 16 em 20 Estados analisados fecharam o período com despesas crescendo mais do que a inflação. Assim, o problema maior dos Estados deixou de ser a dívida e passou a ser o fluxo de caixa para pagar a despesa corrente. Especialistas afirmam que a dívida com a União é um problema de uma minoria de Estados, geralmente os grandes, como São Paulo, cujos débitos são mais elevados. A grande maioria dos Estados tem como principal problema o gasto com pessoal, especialmente por conta do grande desequilíbrio previdenciário. Cinco deles já atrasam o pagamento dos aposentados e pensionistas. O elevado comprometimento do orçamento com essas despesas deixa pouco espaço para investimentos.

Levantamento mostra que as despesas com pessoal de 16 Estados superaram o limite de alerta da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF) no ano passado. Em três deles, essas despesas estão acima de 49% da receita, o que pode até levar à cassação do governador (O Globo 11/1). Segundo o Tesouro, Rio de Janeiro e Rio Grande do Norte estão na pior situação. Entre janeiro e agosto do ano passado, registraram despesas com pessoal acima de 49% da receita corrente líquida. Como se constata, os problemas do Estados estão longe do fim, apesar da retomada da economia e da renegociação das dívidas com a União e o BNDES.

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