O papel do Executivo nas reformas

Por Estadão

Samuel Pessôa, que figura entreos mais brilhantes economistas brasileiros da atualidade, publicou na Folha de S.Paulo o artigo É hora de acabar a greve no Congresso (3/2). Neste texto, defende principalmente duas ideias. Na primeira, coerente com o título, sustenta que, “em razão da crise política, o Congresso está em greve desde 2015”. Na segunda, enfatiza ser do Congresso o papel principal para o ajuste fiscal brasileiro. Segundo ele, “tapar esse rombo é tarefa do Congresso” e “o melhor que o Executivo pode fazer é apresentar um plano de ajuste das contas públicas e a partir dele negociar no Congresso”. Não vejo exatamente assim.

Em primeiro lugar, parece-me injusto afirmar que o Legislativo está praticamente parado há quatro anos. De 2015 para cá, o Congresso aprovou medidas de alta relevância para o ajuste das contas públicas e para o aumento da produtividade da economia. Entre elas destacam-se a emenda constitucional do Teto de Gastos, a reforma trabalhista, a TLP, que acabou com a farra de empréstimos subsidiados do BNDES, o fim da participação obrigatória da Petrobrás no pré-sal, a lei da terceirização, o projeto que resultou na Lei 13.709/18, que trata da proteção de dados pessoais e altera o Marco Civil da Internet e a nova lei sobre distrato imobiliário. Além disso, encaminhou projetos importantes, agora praticamente prontos para serem votados, como o cadastro positivo de crédito, a nova lei de recuperação judicial e falências e a independência do Banco Central.

Em segundo lugar, não me parece correto minimizar o papel do Executivo na promoção do ajuste fiscal.

Tomemos a reforma da Previdência. Mesmo antes da última internação hospitalar de Jair Bolsonaro, que infelizmente se prolonga por tempo acima do esperado, o desacordo sobre o tema entre os eixos político, militar e econômico do governo, além do próprio presidente, já era claro. Com o vazamento da minuta da proposta, tais divergências foram expostas à luz do dia e tornaram-se preocupantes, provocando incertezas e muita volatilidade no mercado financeiro.

Não se tratam de divergências sobre detalhes, mas envolvem questões essenciais, como idade mínima, regra de transição, inclusão ou não de militares, entre outras.

A esta altura, não se deveria mais falar na reforma pretendida por Paulo Guedes, por Onyx Lorenzoni, pelos militares ou pelo vice-presidente, Hamilton Mourão. O País já deveria saber qual é a reforma de Jair Bolsonaro, que recebeu 57,8 milhões de votos na eleição presidencial.

Ninguém duvida do compromisso de Paulo Guedes com o ajuste fiscal, mas mesmo ele já começou cedendo além do que deveria. Na semana passada, anunciou que, no mínimo, a reforma deveria promover economia fiscal de R$ 1 trilhão, no período de 10 a 15 anos. Pouca gente prestou atenção na expressão “15 anos”. O destaque foi a cifra de R$ 1 trilhão. Ocorre que tal valor, em 15 anos, corresponde a um ganho fiscal médio anual em torno de R$ 70 bilhões, menos do que pretendia a proposta original de Temer.

Antes da reeleição de Rodrigo Maia para a presidência da Câmara, falou-se muito que, se eleito, ele adotaria interpretação flexível do regimento, de modo a acelerar a tramitação do projeto. Pelo seu histórico parlamentar, sabe-se que Maia trabalhará muito a favor da reforma da Previdência, mas certamente não atropelará o regimento, como ele próprio já afirmou. Foi eleito para o cargo com votos de praticamente todos os partidos e correntes ideológicas e, portanto, terá de dar voz à oposição, o que é princípio básico da democracia.

Sim, como diz Samuel, a palavra final será do Congresso. No que pese isso, a aprovação da reforma da Previdência depende de muito empenho, coesão e articulação política competente do Executivo, o contrário do que se observa até agora.

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