Lance por aeroporto será de R$ 218 mi

Por Estadão

Apesar do crescimento fraco da economia brasileira e do desempenho pífio dos aeroportos já concedidos à iniciativa privada, deve ser alta a demanda do primeiro leilão de privatização do governo de Jair Bolsonaro – marcado para 15 de março -, segundo fontes ouvidas pelo ‘Estado’. Os 12 aeroportos, que respondem por 9,5% do mercado doméstico, devem render R$ 218 milhões de outorga mínima inicial para a União. Nos primeiros cinco anos, os vencedores terão de investir R$ 1,47 bilhão na melhoria dos terminais.

O bloco do Nordeste – que inclui os terminais de Recife, Maceió, João Pessoa, Aracaju, Campina Grande e Juazeiro do Norte – será o mais demandado pela proximidade com a Europa e pelo já intenso fluxo de turistas na região. Uma fonte do mercado disse esperar até dez concorrentes para o bloco, que tem o aeroporto de Recife como principal chamariz.

O terminal recebeu, no ano passado, 8,3 milhões de passageiros, registrando um número recorde e um aumento de 9% na comparação com 2017. Vistos como menos interessantes, os blocos do Centro-Oeste (que engloba os terminais de Cuiabá, Sinop, Alta Floresta e Rondonópolis) e do Sudeste (Vitória e Macaé) não devem ficar sem ofertas, apurou o Estado.

O perfil econômico das regiões onde eles estão instalados é o principal atrativo.

O bloco do CentroOeste poderá atender ao agronegócio, enquanto o aeroporto de Vitória é um importante terminal de cargas e o de Macaé serve à indústria de óleo e gás. De acordo com uma fonte, a maior parte das ofertas deverá ser feita por grupos estrangeiros. Para ela, o fato de o governo ter retirado a exigência de a Infraero ser sócia nos aeroportos torna o leilão mais atraente para os investidores, que poderão operar os terminais de forma mais independente.

“As novas condições, sem Infraero, investimento menor e novo cálculo de outorga tornaram as concessões mais atrativas”, acrescenta Pablo Sorj, sócio do escritório de advocacia Mattos Filho. De acordo com Sorj, além de empresas estrangeiras que já atuam no Brasil, deverão aparecer algumas estreantes na disputa: “Há várias companhias que querem expandir os negócios para mercado com potencial de crescimento.”

Baixa ocupação

Às vésperas do leilão de 12 aeroportos, o movimento nos terminais de todo o País sofre para se recuperar da crise. O número de passageiros que circularam pelos dez aeroportos já concedidos à iniciativa privada cresceu 5% no ano passado. Não foi o suficiente para alcançar o patamar de 2015, quando o setor teve resultado recorde. Nos terminais que vão a leilão em 15 de março, o movimento avançou 6%. Com a forte recessão econômica que assolou o País a partir de 2014, a curva projetada de demanda foi ficando mais distante da realidade vivida nos aeroportos.

Nos primeiros cinco aeroportos privatizados em 2012 e 2013, o número de passageiros está 34% abaixo daquele estimado nos estudos de viabilidade. “As previsões iniciais não existem mais. Hoje estamos com 2 milhões de passageiros abaixo do patamar de quando assumimos o aeroporto, em 2014”, afirma o presidente da Riogaleão, Luiz Rocha. Com capacidade para 37 milhões de passageiros por ano, depois dos investimentos em expansão, o terminal opera com cerca de 40% de ociosidade. Rocha explica que, além dos efeitos da economia do País, o Riogaleão também sofreu com a crise fiscal do Estado, que abalou a vida financeira da população. Controlado pela Changi, de Cingapura, depois da saída da Odebrecht, o aeroporto perdeu no ano passado 1 milhão de passageiros em voos domésticos e ganhou 277 mil no internacional.

Em 2017, a companhia conseguiu reprogramar os pagamentos de outorga, com a saída da Odebrecht da concessão. Como parte do acordo com o governo federal, o grupo antecipou os pagamentos de 2018, 2019 e metade de 2020. Agora só retoma os pagamentos em 2023. “Isso deu um fôlego, mas não significa que a gente possa perder passageiros eternamente”, destaca Rocha. Em recuperação judicial desde o ano passado, o Aeroporto de Viracopos, em Campinas, tem percebido reação positiva nos últimos sete meses. Ainda assim, o terminal está distante do melhor momento da aviação brasileira.

“Os números de janeiro foram muito otimistas. Se extrapolar para o resto do ano, teremos uma boa recuperação”, diz o presidente da concessionária Aeroportos Brasil (que administra Viracopos), Gustavo Müssnich.

A esperança dele é que a redução do imposto sobre combustível de aviação, anunciada pelo governador de São Paulo, João Dória, impulsione a demanda no aeroporto. A expectativa é que Viracopos vire opção de escala de voos para o Nordeste. Nos últimos anos, a projeção de crescimento de Viracopos foi revista de 61 milhões de passageiros para 25 milhões em 2042.

“Houve uma frustração muito grande de demanda nos aeroportos aliada à necessidade de investimento alta. O resultado é a elevada ociosidade que vemos hoje”, diz Pablo Sorj, sócio do escritório Mattos Filho e especialista em infraestrutura e financiamento de projetos. Retomada lenta A ocupação dos aeroportos está tão baixa que hoje mesmo quem retomou os patamares de 2015 opera com ociosidade. Guarulhos é um exemplo.

No ano passado, o aeroporto recebeu 41,1 milhões de passageiros, segundo dados da Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (Anac). A capacidade, porém, é de 50,5 milhões – número que, pelos estudos preliminares de viabilidade econômica, deveria ter sido atingido em 2018. “Ainda temos de crescer dois anos (a uma média anual de 10%) para nos alinharmos ao plano de negócios. Mas a estratégia de liquidez está dentro do planejado para os pagamentos de outorga”, disse Gustavo Figueiredo, presidente da GRU Airport, recentemente.

Assim como a Riogaleão, a GRU também renegociou o pagamento da outorga com o governo federal em 2017, adiantando uma parte que seria paga no ano seguinte e garantindo um desconto no valor. A renegociação permitiu que a empresa chegasse a 2018 com uma situação de caixa mais tranquila.

Apesar de estar longe dos números que haviam sido projetados inicialmente, o aeroporto de Guarulhos, ao lado do de Fortaleza e do de Florianópolis, está entre os poucos já concedidos à iniciativa privada que estão com movimentação superior à de 2015. No caso do primeiro, houve um aumento de 11% só no ano passado. Em Florianópolis, o número de passageiros chegou a 3,7 milhões em 2018, o que representa uma alta de 2,8% na comparação com 2015, até então o melhor ano do terminal, mas mesmo assim longe da demanda projetada.

Florianópolis não é a única preocupação da suíça Zürich Airport. A companhia também é sócia do aeroporto de Confins, em Minas Gerais, com o grupo brasileiro CCR. Por lá, a movimentação de passageiros ainda é 6,4% inferior à de 2015. A estimativa da concessionária, porém, é crescer 10% neste ano, superando o recorde registrado quatro anos atrás. Em Brasília e Natal, onde os terminais são operados pela Inframérica, a demanda doméstica puxou a recuperação no ano passado. Em 2018, o movimento no aeroporto de Brasília cresceu 6%, enquanto o de Natal ficou praticamente estável. As informações são do jornal O Estado de S. Paulo

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