Empresas em crise podem afundar ainda mais após greve

Por Estadão

Ainda que a greve dos caminhoneiros já esteja sendo desmobilizada e os combustíveis comecem a chegar aos postos de todo o País, a interrupção nas entregas de insumos e produtos deve levar parte das empresas que vinham tentando reencontrar o equilíbrio operacional e financeiro voltarem a ter problemas.

A visão de especialistas no assunto é a de que os efeitos continuarão a ser sentidos por algum tempo. A demora será mais sentida porque demanda e oferta serão retomadas com velocidade inferior à necessidade de caixa para cobrir as perdas dos últimos 10 dias. Além disso, o maior problema para esse grupo de empresas já fragilizadas é o abalo na confiança dos consumidores e investidores. Outro impacto previsto por especialistas é a elevação nos pedidos de recuperação judicial.

Por isso, alguns assessores de reestruturação operacional e financeira já trabalham em planos de contingência para que essas companhias, pelo menos, consigam honrar a folha de pagamento. Outro efeito, não descartado, é uma elevação nos pedidos de recuperação judicial.

“O impacto da greve deve ser muito maior, até que tudo se normalize e a confiança, inclusive dos consumidores, seja retomada. As pessoas ficam ressabiadas e com o período pré eleitoral a insegurança aumenta”, observa Eduardo Sampaio, diretor de reestruturação da Alvarez & Marsal. Segundo ele, mesmo que a insegurança passe, as lojas ficaram vazias e os centros de distribuição também, portanto, toda a cadeia deve demorar a se restabelecer.

Empresas em reorganização dos setores de varejo, automotivo e imobiliário são as mais impactadas, de acordo com Sampaio, dado que tinham demanda reprimida e começavam a dar sinais de recuperação no consumo.

Sem citar nomes, Sampaio comenta que um de seus clientes do setor de varejo, que teve desempenho acima do previsto no primeiro trimestre, já teve seu plano de recuperação furado. “Toda a gordura constituída nos primeiros três meses do ano foi consumida nesses dez dias e agora, para cobrir o buraco, a companhia terá de gerar caixa até acima do que havia planejado”, conta.

Um outro cliente, do setor de logística, até então sem problemas financeiros, viu sua estratégia de melhorar resultados evaporar. “A companhia vinha conseguindo passar ilesa, sem renegociar com bancos, pode ter problemas para pagamento a fornecedores e os investimentos em expansão previstos serão postergados”, lamenta.

Efeitos duradouros. O sócio da Galeazzi & Associados, Luiz Galeazzi, entende que o pior efeito é a crise de confiança e descarta que a paralisação isoladamente seja motivo de quebra de alguma empresa. “Para as que estavam com o copo meio cheio, de fato, transbordou”, disse lembrando que com sete dias de paralisação, 30% da receita foi embora. “Mas se alguma quebrar é porque já estava com graves problemas”, acrescenta ele.

A concessão de dinheiro novo, que serve normalmente de oxigênio para essas companhias, pode ficar também comprometido, em sua visão. “Embora o humor não esteja positivo, acredito que haja repactuação de dívidas, porque elas já estão lá. Mas dinheiro novo, de bancos ou fornecedores, vai ficar mais difícil, dada a desconfiança sobre a capacidade de pagamento, não pela empresa, mas pelo contexto complicado em que o País está”, diz.

Crédito mais difícil. Caso a greve se prolongue, a agência Moody’s vê riscos de as paralisações gerarem um estresse de crédito “severo” em todos os segmentos corporativos do País. A agência estima que a volta à normalidade no Brasil consuma ainda algumas semanas para que todas as operações no setor corporativo voltem aos trilhos.

“Uma normalização das condições de transporte nos próximos dias não representaria problemas de crédito significativos para as métricas de crédito das empresas classificadas, embora isso provavelmente enfraquecesse os resultados financeiros trimestrais”, avaliam analistas da Moody’s, em relatório ao mercado.

Inadimplência. Do lado da inadimplência da pessoa jurídica, o presidente do Banco do Brasil, Paulo Caffarelli, afirmou que a greve ainda não trouxe impacto nos calotes. Segundo ele, a instituição já tem conhecimento de algumas empresas, principalmente as que fazem parte de ciclos produtivos, com dificuldades por causa das paralisações terem estancado sua produção. “Alguns casos teremos de analisar algum tipo de situação de alongamento (de dívidas)”, acrescentou ele, em conversa com jornalistas, destacando que ainda é cedo para mensurar possíveis impactos.

Como ainda falta praticamente todo um mês para o fechamento do segundo trimestre, os bancos evitam comentar sobre a possibilidade de a greve afetar os números do período. Nos bastidores, essas instituições financeiras acompanham, contudo, com bastante atenção a extensão dos estragos gerados com as paralisações.

“Os bancos automaticamente vão restringir crédito por causa da insegurança, falta de previsibilidade. Novas análises de risco de crédito serão feitas, porque as premissas apresentadas pelas companhias não valem mais”, disse o sócio da Galeazzi & Associados, Luiz Galeazzi.

Efeitos generalizados. Na mineradora Vale, a queda da produção será inevitável se a greve perdurar, de acordo com o presidente da companhia, Fabio Schvartsman. “Por enquanto o impacto da greve é limitado, mas será muito maior se o movimento continuar”, acrescentou ele, durante participação em um evento, ontem, na capital paulista.

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