Banco chinês hesita em emprestar ao setor privado

Por Valor Econômico

Pobres dos bancos estatais chineses, que estão sempre tentando obedecer as instruções dos formuladores de políticas de Pequim, que estão sempre mudando. Durante anos, os bancos preferiram emprestar para as grandes empresas estatais – por causa da garantia implícita do governo que essas dívidas tradicionalmente carregam, e porque as estatais eram vistas como campeãs nacionais que mereciam apoio.

Mas agora, o “script” está mudando, conforme a economia perde força. Muitos investidores estrangeiros estão concentrados no impacto da disputa comercial com os EUA, mas o efeito de uma sanção severa ao setor bancário paralelo (“shadow banking”, em inglês) – que fechou o acesso ao crédito para empresas privadas que dependiam de canais não bancários – provavelmente é mais importante. As empresas privadas geram 60% do crescimento econômico da China e 90% dos novos empregos, segundo uma associação setorial que as representa.

É por isso que o governo chinês emitiu na semana passada diretrizes exortando os bancos, entre outros intermediários, a preencherem esse vácuo para aumentar o apoio às empresas privadas. Mesmo assim, não se sabe se o convencimento moral sozinho será capaz de dar conta do recado.

Após uma série de “defaults” de bônus por grupos privados, as instituições financeiras estão hesitantes. Sarah Xu, analista da agência de classificação de crédito Moody’s em Xangai, diz que a possibilidade de apoio contínuo do governo aos grupos privados é positivo apenas para as companhias “fundamentalmente sólidas”, que, segundo ela, “são poucas”.

Quanto às mais fracas, “a maior disponibilidade de crédito não afetará significativamente a situação geral de financiamento dessas empresas”. Um total de 124 emissões de bônus com o principal avaliado em 121 bilhões de yuans (US$ 18 bilhões) ficaram inadimplentes no ano passado, comparado a apenas 34 bilhões de yuans no ano anterior, segundo dado da Wind Financial Information.

Entre aquelas que deram calote, cerca de quatro quintos eram formados por grupos privados, muito embora as empresas estatais representem a maioria dos emissores de bônus. Os bancos podem estar cautelosos em apoiar os grupos privados porque não confiam na fidedignidade de suas demonstrações financeiras. No mês passado, a Kangdexin Composite Materials, uma empresa listada em Shenzhen, deu um calote em um título emitido internamente de 1 bilhão de yuans. Mesmo assim, seu relatório trimestral mais recente mostrava que o grupo tinha 15 bilhões de yuans em ativos de elevada liquidez no fim de setembro – lançando dúvidas sobre a exatidão de suas demonstrações contábeis. “As demonstrações financeiras podem ter sido fabricadas.

Uma técnica típica é obter dinheiro temporariamente” para que ele possa ser registrado no balanço, diz Shi Min, diretor de crédito da Lakefront Asset Management, um fundo hedge de Pequim. Ele acrescenta que a divulgação da Kangdexin, uma fabricante de filmes laminados, pode ter omitido o fato de que essas posições em dinheiro eram “restritas”, não disponíveis para uso imediato.

A companhia negou ter divulgado demonstrações financeiras falsas e disse num protocolo encaminhado à bolsa de valores de Shenzhen que uma investigação interna revelou “uma situação em que grandes acionistas tomaram conta dos fundos”, sem fornecer mais detalhes. As autoridades reguladoras do mercado de valores mobiliários da China também estão investigando a companhia, segundo o protocolo.

Mas a Kangdexin não é um caso isolado. A Bright Oceans Corp, uma companhia trading de commodities, deu calote em pelo menos sete pagamentos de bônus desde o fim de 2017, apesar de reportar 4,8 bilhões de yuans em “cash” e equivalentes em seu balanço em junho de 2017. A agência chinesa Lianhe Credit concedeu a nota “AA” à companhia naquele mês, rebaixando-a para “C” em janeiro do ano passado. A Bright Oceans não respondeu a pedidos para comentários.

Participantes do mercado afirmam que em vez de simplesmente conclamar os bancos e investidores a aumentar os empréstimos aos grupos privados, as autoridades reguladoras deveriam cultivar os mecanismos baseados no mercado, que podem permitir aos bancos e investidores em bônus avaliar o risco de crédito e as relações de recuperação de “default” com maior exatidão. Isso inclui o desenvolvimento de auditores, agências de classificação de risco e cortes de falências. “As autoridades reguladoras não podem averiguar tudo sozinhas.

Elas não têm pessoal ou a qualificação para isso. O que o mercado precisa é que as instituições ajudem na supervisão”, afirma o presidente na China de um grande banco europeu. “Se as autoridades reguladoras punissem duramente alguns contadores que permitem fraudes, isso transmitiria uma grande mensagem.”

Mas Drew Bernstein da Marcum BP, uma firma de contabilidade especializada em ajudar companhias chinesas a listarem suas ações nos Estados Unidos, diz que é irreal esperar que os auditores exponham fraudes. “Digamos que eu tenha 25 anos de experiência e tenha auditado 50 empresas do setor industrial. Você acha que eu sei muita coisa quando comparado a um cara que está no setor industrial há 25 anos, todos os dias de sua vida? Você não acha que ele sabe o suficiente para perpetrar uma fraude sofisticada o suficiente para me enganar?”, pergunta ele.

Em vez disso, Bernstein diz que os investidores que fazem venda a descoberto são os mais capazes de detectar e expor fraudes. Mas as vendas a descoberto praticamente não existem no mercado de bônus corporativos da China. “Passei muito tempo aprendendo com as vendas a descoberto porque elas não estão no mundo da contabilidade”, afirma ele. Uma solução parcial poderá vir com a entrada das agências estrangeiras de classificação de crédito no mercado de bônus.

Os grupos estrangeiros deverão conceder notas mais altas com menos frequência que seus concorrentes locais. Mas pelo menos no médio prazo, os grupos estrangeiros ocuparão só um pequeno nicho do mercado chinês.

“Os relatórios de acompanhamento das agências de classificação parece que são escritos de acordo com um modelo, para que as pessoas não tenham nenhuma maneira de verificar as informações apresentadas pelas companhias”, diz Qi Sheng, analista-chefe de renda fixa da Zhonghai Securities de Xangai.

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