Após um bimestre de alta, receita voltou a cair em março, aponta Ibre

Por Valor Econômico

Depois de dois meses em que a arrecadação tributária apresentou tendência de melhora marginal, a receita voltou a recuar em março, de acordo com informações obtidas até 10 de abril no Tesouro Gerencial, sistema de registro de despesas e receitas do governo federal. No mês passado, a receita administrada caiu 2% em relação ao mesmo mês de 2016, já descontada a inflação do período. A receita total recuou 1,5%, na mesma comparação, para R$ 98,2 bilhões.

Os dados, antecipados ao Valor, são parte de boletim feito pelos economistas José Roberto Afonso, Vilma da Conceição Pinto e José Ricardo Guimarães Júnior, do Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (Ibre) da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). O objetivo do estudo é antecipar a tendência da arrecadação divulgada pela Receita Federal, ainda que diferenças metodológicas, como meios e prazos de apuração, produzam certa divergência entre as duas fontes. A Receita divulga os dados oficiais nos próximos dias.

Para Vilma, o comportamento da arrecadação em março surpreendeu negativamente porque nos últimos meses a trajetória observada era de melhora gradual da receita, ainda que sobre uma base de comparação muito deprimida. “Desde dezembro temos visto um mês melhor do que o outro. Em março, esperávamos alta real da arrecadação, mas tivemos reversão dessa tendência. O número foi até pior do que janeiro”, observa ela.

De fato, a mediana das projeções contidas no Boletim Prisma de março apontava para arrecadação de R$ 100,9 bilhões no mês, o que traria crescimento real da receita pelo terceiro mês seguido.

A economista avalia que a principal surpresa negativa no mês passado foi a arrecadação de Imposto de Renda sobre Pessoa Jurídica (IRPJ) e Contribuição Social sobre Lucro Líquido (CSLL), justamente os dois tributos que puxaram a receita no primeiro bimestre. Para Vilma, é possível que as quedas nessas duas rubricas em março tenham sido efeito da antecipação de recolhimento da declaração de ajuste anual para o primeiro bimestre, já que no acumulado do ano os dois tributos continuam a apresentar aumento. “Essa antecipação de pagamentos pode ter levado a uma mudança na base de comparação”, afirma.

Mesmo assim, diz Vilma, os tributos relacionados ao consumo ainda vão mal, com queda de 9% no Imposto de Importação e de 2,7% da Cofins, por exemplo.

Com essa evolução predominantemente negativa, a receita administrada caiu 2% em março, em relação ao mesmo mês de 2016. A arrecadação total só teve uma queda um pouco menor, de 1,5% no mesmo período, por causa do comportamento de royalties e participações especiais, que vêm registrando números positivos por causa da valorização do preço do petróleo.

Apesar do mês negativo para o recolhimento de tributos pelo governo, Vilma pondera que este pode ter sido apenas um “soluço”, já que em 12 meses a tendência ainda é de alguma recuperação.

Sem considerar a receita com a repatriação de recursos no ano passado, a arrecadação acumula retração de 3,9%, em termos reais, na média móvel de 12 meses até março, um número bem menos negativo do que a forte queda de 7% registrada em meados do ano passado, na mesma comparação.

Nos cálculos do Ibre, se a tendência de modesta recuperação for mantida nos próximos meses, aproximadamente em junho de 2017 a receita pode voltar a mostrar crescimento em 12 meses. “Mas ainda não temos motivos para comemorar”, apontam os economistas do Ibre no boletim, já que a base de comparação é muito ruim. Em relação a 2012, por exemplo, a arrecadação total está 14,2% menor, enquanto o recolhimento de IRPJ e CSLL caiu 32,9%.

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